MLS season guide: Predictions for MLS Cup, MVP, Golden Boot and how to watch (2024)

MLS is back, and earlier than ever before. The league’s 27th season starts this weekend with a full slate of games to close February – a start date that was necessary in order for the season to end in time for the 2022 men’s World Cup.

The past offseason has seen a new expansion team – Charlotte FC – build its inaugural roster, and exciting new arrivals like Lorenzo Insigne, Xherdan Shaqiri, and too many high-potential signings from South America to list in full here.

Our American soccer staff has been following all of these developments closely, and we’ll continue to do so all season long. Here, read up on all our season preview coverage, along with broadcast information and our picks for where the teams will place, who will win the Supporters’ Shield (best regular season record), MLS Cup, MVP, and the Golden Boot.

Season Preview

Reads:

• Welcome to MLS, Season 27: Where one key factor could supercharge the next four years
• Reviewing all the new MLS kits for 2022
• One big question for every team
• Direct Kick rankings: Which MLS teams are most watchable in 2022?
• MLS intra-league moves, analyzed: How players will fit on their new teams
• How MLS’s rapid expansion creates an unprecedented variety of approaches towards roster-building
• How Right to Dream academy’s mission has expanded and landed yet another pro in MLS
• Why intra-MLS trades cost so much
• Blasts From the past: The New England Revolution’s End Zone Militia keeps MLS originality alive

Q&As:

• Toronto FC head coach Bob Bradley on his move from LAFC
• RSL head coach Pablo Mastroeni on the lessons from last year’s playoff run
• New Houston Dynamo head coach Paulo Nagamura on his influences and goals in his first MLS coaching job
• Atlanta United’s Darren Eales and Dimitrios Efstathiou on vetting and signing Thiago Almada

Podcasts:

Allocation Disorder MLS preview:

Soccer Every Day – Five MLS team storylines worth watching

First, let’s send it over to you, the readers. In a public poll, we asked you to predict where all 28 MLS teams will finish the season.

(Graphics by John Muller)

Here’s how our combined staff rankings came out:

OK, on to the big prizes.

Landon Donovan MVP winner

Sam: For his first three years in the league, Josef Martinez was the best striker in MLS history. Then came his 2020 ACL tear. He was decent upon his return in 2021, scoring 12 goals in a little more than 1,600 minutes, but he never looked quite like himself. With Luiz Araujo and Thiago Almada on his flanks, a more stable coach at the helm in Gonzalo Pineda and more time to get his knee right, I think the King will make a full return in 2022.

Felipe: I didn’t give Hany Mukhtar any preseason love last season and I didn’t vote for him as the 2021 MVP. Not this year. Mukhtar is a certified baller in this league with an understated swagger that keeps him dangerous in every match. Nashville SC is a confident side. They play like a tight knit group and I think in 2022, they’ll play for their star teammate.

Matt: I’m with Felipe here. He had a strong case for MVP last season — 16 goals plus 12 assists — only to lose out to New England’s Carles Gil for what seemed more like team success reasons than individual ones. That could very well be less of a concern this year: Nashville feels as though it’s a club on an upward trajectory in general. They were unbeaten at home all of last year and should be an even tougher out once they move into their brand-new stadium this June.

Pablo: Please allow me to point this out: I was on the Mukhtar train long before anybody else at the outlet. My feelings on him as a player haven’t changed and Nashville has only changed for the better this off-season. They remain one of the most solidly-constructed sides in the league and Mukhtar will have a well-built supporting cast to help him along towards an MVP nod this year.

John: A lot of MVP candidates are old, injury prone, unlikely to play a full season, or all of the above. So how about Sporting Kansas City’s 25-year-old left winger? Only a handful of players had more goals and assists — actual or expected — than Sallói last season, and he wasn’t even padding his stats with penalties or set piece assists. Alan Pulido’s absence could throw a wrench in Peter Vermes’s attack, but it could also boost Sallói’s role. Plus it’s a contract year, so he’ll have millions of reasons to perform.

Alexander: I think Mukhtar and Sallói are choices 1a and 1b for me, but I went with Sallói not only for all the reasons John mentioned, but also a kinda silly one: he would be the first MLS homegrown player to win the Donovan. This would be a terrific “that’s so MLS” moment considering he is also the homegrown player whose signing has most tested the definition of “homegrown” (his time in SKC’s academy amounted to one season while he was a high school foreign exchange student, having already spent years in a pro club’s academy in his native Hungary).

Jeff: There’s a compelling case to be made for some revisionist history voting. Too many of us voters treated the MVP race as being sewn up in July with how Gil was dishing… but in reality, the Spaniard really cooled off down the stretch. Mukhtar was as singularly important to his team as anyone last season, as vital to the attack as Walker Zimmerman is for the defense. The underlying numbers didn’t love my man Mukhtar as much, though —compare his 0.94 G+A/90 to his expected rate of 0.6. Unless Randall Leal or Aké Loba can find another level of danger, teams will be able to glom onto the German to try slowing him down.

So who else? If Chicharito can contribute 20+ goals and assists and the Galaxy return to top-four standing in the West (which I think they will), that would catch headlines and voters’ attention without question.

Paul: No player will be asked to provide more on the attacking end for their team than Shaqiri with Chicago. He’ll have a striker who can finish off opportunities he creates in Kacper Przybyłko and he’s going to net a few more goals than he did in his European career. And if he can manage to get the Fire into the playoffs, it’ll push him over the top to be MVP.

Golden Boot winner

Sam: See above. I’m talking 25+ goals.

Felipe: Wouldn’t be surprised to see Josef Martínez get hot this season. But LAFC is going to be good again and Cristian Arango is going to feast up top. Arango is a legitimate goalscorer and he’ll get plenty of service in LA.

Alexander: I should know better than to base current-year MLS predictions on last year’s action, but I gotta side with Felipe on this. Arango was awesome after his midseason arrival on an LAFC team that wasn’t as balanced as this year’s appears to be. He had a higher goals/90 rate of anyone in the league other than Ola Kamara, who is being actively shopped by D.C. Arango will presumably continue taking LAFC’s PKs too considering he went 5-for-5 last year, and those will count just the same as any other goal for this particular award. Those PKs will also help keep him competitive here even if Vela departs midseason and the run-of-play service dips a bit.

Matt: So much of this award tends to come down to the quality of service, and Seattle’s attacking front is as loaded as anybody. Healthy versions of Jordan Morris and Nicolas Lodeiro, plus the addition of Albert Rusnak, to a team that was already scoring plenty of goals? Yeesh. Josef could get the 25 Sam put down as a benchmark, and it still wouldn’t surprise me if Ruidíaz surpassed him.

Jeff: It’s just unfair how much top-level service Ruidíaz will get this year. He bagged 17 goals in 27 games last season…and now he’s got Nicolas Lodeiro coming back and Albert Rusnák? Hell, I think I might pick Will Bruin for golden boot if he was the starter.

Pablo: Listen to Jeff. Jeff is smart. Seattle’s XI this year is borderline terrifying to look at, and Ruidiaz remains an elite player even within that group.

John: Taty Castellanos is the best striker in the league on possibly the best team in the league, but he’ll be gone by summer. That makes Ruidíaz — another great striker on a great team —an easy pick here.

Paul: I agree with what Sam wrote about Josef. A lot of talent around him and when he’s healthy he scores goals.

Supporters’ Shield winners

Sam: Josef will pop off, Robinson and Franco will hold things down in the back and the other Shield contenders — NYCFC, Seattle and New England, namely — will have to deal with some schedule congestion thanks to CCL. Atlanta gets the Shield they should’ve had in 2018.

Felipe: NYCFC have looked sharp in CCL and they’ll ride their MLS Cup-winning confidence to another impressive overall campaign in 2022. The pressure is off this team. They know they’re good and Ronny Deila shouldn’t have to worry about his job this season. The Pigeons will narrowly edge Seattle for the Shield.

Matt: The CCL thing is a legit concern, especially since I think the Sounders have the goods to make a deep run there, too. But this is as good and as balanced a squad as Seattle has ever had, at least on paper, and that is saying something. They should be in the mix for every available trophy in 2022.

Pablo: I’ve learned to write off CCL failures, blaming them almost entirely on the format of the tournament and its early, early start. I don’t put much stock in preseason performances either; I just can’t imagine anybody other than the Sounders winning the Shield this year – maybe it’s a bit too obvious, though: I also chose Carlos Vela to win the MVP last year. Didn’t work out great.

John: NYCFC has more roster questions than Seattle —can they cope with the loss of James Sands and probably Castellanos? can Maxi Morález put in one last great season? —but they also get to play almost 20% of their games against Miami, Charlotte, and Cincinnati. Who said the Supporters’ Shield was fair?

Paul: I think this is a year where the top teams in the West will be able to feast a bit more than they have in years past. Seattle’s CCL status is concerning, but not concerning enough.

Jeff: A bit more, sure, but on paper, three of the weakest teams in the league (Charlotte, Cincinnati, Miami) are in the East. The top three teams in the conference are tough to separate, but I liked Philadelphia’s offseason and think they have more to prove this year after New England and NYCFC split the hardware.

Alexander: That’s right, I’m picking Orlando. If you can’t live dangerously while making preseason MLS predictions, why live at all? Besides, there’s a lot I like here. I like all of OCSC’s many offseason moves, including two forwards (Facundo Torres and Ercan Kara) that have strong goal-scoring records but completely different skill sets. I trust Óscar Pareja to get them and other other newcomers to hit the ground running in a league he knows well. I like Orlando’s balanced spine with one of the league’s best goalkeepers and a strong center back pairing. I like that the East seems weaker than the West. I like their home field advantage, especially when the team is firing. I like Alexandre Pato, just kind of as a rule, even though his role figures to be, uh, limited. Most of all, I like that nobody picked the Revs last year either, which makes me feel pretty alright about being on an island here.

MLS Cup winners

Sam: Seattle won’t win the Shield, but there’s no substitute for their veteran savvy when it comes to making a run to MLS Cup. Combine their knowhow, maturity and consistent ability to rise to the occasion with what might be the best front six in the league, a stout back four and, when healthy, a top-notch goalkeeper, and I like them to lift Cup once again. It’s been a few years, anyhow. They’re due.

Felipe: Orlando City is going to be solid this year. They could become this season’s NYCFC, meaning, not a favorite early on but capable of beating the top teams in the East in a knockout playoff format. Oscar Pareja’s ability to win the big game when it matters will be put to the test, but Orlando has gotten stronger. Facundo Torres will deliver and the clutch goalkeeping of Pedro Gallese will be decisive. Orlando City will shock MLS.

Pablo: I’m concerned about my friend Felipe. That’s a hell of a pick. Anyways, I hate to sound like a broken record, but I look at Seattle and, on paper, I just don’t feel up to picking any other team. That having been said, all you have to do is look at the Revolution’s playoff flame-out last year to understand that anything can happen in this godforsaken league.

Jeff: I’m with Sam and Pablo on the Sounders bandwagon. Sorry this isn’t a fun pick. May as well just assume we’re getting another Seattle-Toronto final.

John: Look, knockout soccer in a salary-capped league is basically random and anyone can win MLS Cup. Except Orlando. Orlando can’t win MLS Cup. Toronto’s rebuild will be a long process, but if they can do enough to sneak into the playoffs, Bob Bradley and Lorenzo Insigne will be a scary combo to beat. And yeah, Seattle’s more likely to have home advantage, but that didn’t stop them from losing to Real Salt Lake last year despite allowing zero (0) shots. See? Random.

Matt: Seattle is a safer bet, for reasons listed above, but they also feel like the safe bet. To go a little bit more outlandish, I just like the way that Nashville is built. Drawing 18 of 34 league matches isn’t particularly ambitious, but they don’t give out points for bravery. They’re hard to beat, have maybe the best player in the league and will be backed by a rocking atmosphere in their new stadium if they can earn a top seed.

Alexander: I’m with Matt. Nashville’s the pick because they fulfill what I’ve found to be the most truthful terrible sports cliché: “defense wins championships.”

Paul: I can’t believe that Felipe stole my MLS Cup pick. Unreal, Felipe. This team is going to get off to a slow start, but they’re going to be peaking come late fall and it’s going to pay off in the playoffs.

How to watch

Most MLS teams have local TV deals. In addition to that, games are nationally broadcast on ESPN, Fox networks, and Univision/UniMás/TUDN in the United States, and TSN & TVA in Canada.

Every out-of-market MLS game can be seen in the U.S. on ESPN+, with non-national games in Canada available on DAZN. Select games are available in the UK on Sky Sports.

Here is a breakdown of team appearances on national TV in the United States:

* Includes one game on ESPN2